Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -5.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.9 (+0.9) | 149.6 (+26.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -2.4 (-1.6) | 150.9 (+25.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -3.6 (-0.4) | 152.7 (+23.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.8 (-1.2) | 152.5 (+23.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NDSU 74 – 66 SDST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 SDST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | NDSU 77 – 68 SDST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SDST 72 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SDST 78 – 61 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 18-0 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-0 |
| Away | 9-6 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#239) | 5.9 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#127) | 0.84 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#129) | 0.95 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#133) | 0.559 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 42.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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