Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -9.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -5.9 (+17.9) | 134.5 (+9.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -7.8 (+19.8) | 141.5 (+2.5) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -7.7 (+19.7) | 141.4 (+2.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -6.3 (+18.3) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-19 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#334) | 1.8 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#298) | 0.38 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#298) | 0.32 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#287) | 0.507 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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