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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
38–9 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+8.8 | 140.9 | 80% | 59–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 150.8 | 86% | 80–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 141.6 | 86% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.8 | 140.5 | 89% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.2 | 150.1 | 15% | 89–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 142.9 | 86% | 77–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 136.2 | 86% | 55–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.3 | 158.1 | 89% | 83–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.8 | 141.5 | 90% | 53–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+33.4 | 150.8 | 91% | 45–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 136.5 | 59% | 69–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 140.0 | 64% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 154.9 | 69% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.6 | 145.2 | 91% | 66–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 138.5 | 57% | 67–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.3 | 134.8 | 86% | 60–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.9 | 158.8 | 91% | 67–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+35.2 | 148.5 | 91% | 64–117 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 148.6 | 88% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 146.6 | 79% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 134.9 | 73% | 51–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 136.7 | 71% | 59–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 141.4 | 65% | 69–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 142.7 | 72% | 77–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.7 | 145.0 | 89% | 68–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.9 | 141.4 | 90% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 139.6 | 83% | 64–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 152.7 | 87% | 81–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 134.7 | 55% | 93–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.2 | 149.5 | 88% | 82–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 157.4 | 88% | 82–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 139.7 | 79% | 46–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 145.6 | 87% | 71–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 158.9 | 62% | 75–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.0 | 134.3 | 88% | 53–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 143.7 | 57% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 156.2 | 31% | 83–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.1 | 139.3 | 27% | 40–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.2 | 151.1 | 88% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 148.5 | 67% | 96–93 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.8 | 157.3 | 88% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.2 | 143.8 | 90% | 49–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 148.5 | 45% | 79–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 146.2 | 79% | 80–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 150.1 | 72% | 73–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 132.9 | 69% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 152.1 | 89% | 64–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.