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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
25 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+25.7 | 133.1 | 91% | 53–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+34.7 | 148.1 | 91% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 151.5 | 88% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 147.6 | 87% | 58–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 145.9 | 54% | 70–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 150.0 | 49% | 72–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 153.2 | 48% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 139.0 | 86% | 56–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.1 | 147.5 | 91% | 49–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 143.6 | 87% | 65–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 151.1 | 79% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.1 | 146.7 | 88% | 64–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 151.8 | 51% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.9 | 134.6 | 89% | 54–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 146.9 | 57% | 62–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 137.0 | 35% | 63–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.2 | 149.4 | 88% | 72–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 149.3 | 79% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 144.8 | 74% | 67–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 146.3 | 31% | 73–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.4 | 138.7 | 89% | 61–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 140.3 | 63% | 67–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 141.9 | 51% | 75–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.8 | 158.6 | 91% | 76–97 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 141.5 | 22% | 68–55 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.