Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -3000 MSM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -15.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -14.0 (-6.0) | 138.8 (-18.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -15.2 (-7.2) | 139.9 (-19.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -13.4 (-5.4) | 138.3 (-18.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -14.1 (-6.1) | 139.0 (-19.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#72) | -3.0 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | 0.48 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#99) | 0.12 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#173) | 0.528 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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