Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA +155 GONZ -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -5.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.7 (+6.7) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -4.1 (+7.1) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -3.2 (+6.2) | 147.6 (-20.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.5 (+6.5) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | GONZ 82 – 72 UCLA |
| Nov 23, 2023 | GONZ 69 – 65 UCLA |
| Mar 24, 2023 | GONZ 79 – 76 UCLA |
| Nov 24, 2021 | GONZ 83 – 63 UCLA |
| Apr 4, 2021 | GONZ 93 – 90 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#15) | 23.0 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#45) | 2.68 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#53) | 4.05 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#67) | 0.662 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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