Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -6000 EKU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -18.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -15.2 (-13.2) | 150.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -13.9 (-11.9) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -16.2 (-14.2) | 151.1 (+2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -16.3 (-14.3) | 151.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#44) | -2.0 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#50) | -0.72 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#40) | -0.81 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#26) | 0.470 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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