Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -145 FGCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +18 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -1.5 (-16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -0.7 (-18.7) | 141.5 (-9.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -0.8 (-18.8) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.4 (-17.6) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -0.1 (-18.1) | 141.9 (-9.9) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#270) | 0.1 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#285) | -0.46 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#275) | -0.69 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#276) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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