Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -43.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MD -44.7 (-29.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -36.7 (-21.7) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -26.9 (-11.9) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -25.5 (-10.5) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -34.7 (-19.7) | 148.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 17-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#6) | -18.2 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#47) | -3.51 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#36) | -4.37 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#72) | 0.396 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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