Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SYR -1400 BUCK +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -10.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -10.0 (+2.0) | 151.0 (-13.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -12.1 (-0.1) | 152.4 (-14.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -8.3 (+3.7) | 150.3 (-12.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -9.2 (+2.8) | 151.1 (-13.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#123) | -4.0 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#165) | -0.96 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#142) | -1.20 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#128) | 0.475 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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