Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–7 on winners spread MAE 7.7 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Idaho @ Cal Poly +1.5 128.4 39% 71–82 ✓
Stony Brook @ Florida International +7.3 145.7 70% 50–83 ✓
Evansville @ UCF +15.2 127.5 86% 56–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Duquesne +21.6 152.5 90% 57–75 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Brown -5.4 147.6 33% 73–62 ✓
App State @ East Tennessee State +5.9 139.4 70% 74–70 ✗
Merrimack @ Providence +11.8 140.3 86% 57–71 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Missouri +20.3 156.9 84% 51–89 ✓
Butler @ Tennessee -3.0 136.4 37% 45–71 ✗
Louisville @ Cincinnati +7.9 136.7 77% 62–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kansas City -2.5 132.9 39% 73–59 ✓
LSU @ Kansas State +2.6 140.1 58% 59–61 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Alabama A&M -3.9 152.6 33% 80–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Lindenwood +4.2 134.9 64% 76–77 ✓
Auburn @ Northwestern +1.0 127.5 45% 43–42 ✗
Utah @ Mississippi State +4.2 123.1 64% 49–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Michigan +12.0 150.0 79% 68–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ Wake Forest +15.9 149.9 88% 74–105 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UTEP +5.9 128.5 64% 67–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington +1.9 130.0 57% 57–62 ✓
Arkansas @ San Diego State +0.1 142.0 51% 78–74 ✗
North Alabama @ UC Santa Barbara +6.9 136.4 73% 71–89 ✓
Pepperdine @ UCLA +7.9 145.7 78% 53–100 ✓
Minnesota @ UNLV +8.0 128.7 77% 62–71 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Vanderbilt -6.8 131.5 25% 75–65 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Illinois +4.7 124.4 71% 61–64 ✓
Wisconsin @ Kansas +3.2 128.4 66% 68–69 ✓
Florida State @ Siena +0.6 143.2 56% 63–80 ✓
Manhattan @ Northeastern -3.2 136.7 44% 67–69 ✗
North Carolina @ Portland -2.1 146.5 44% 89–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Stanford -1.9 136.6 48% 72–68 ✓
Tennessee @ USC -5.0 136.4 25% 73–66 ✓
Princeton @ Army -9.9 151.1 20% 74–66 ✓
Duke @ Oregon State -14.7 127.7 12% 54–51 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ LSU New Orleans +6.9 137.9 81% 84–87 ✓
Iowa State @ Villanova -6.8 129.2 20% 81–79 ✓
Dayton @ NC State +2.9 136.4 71% 64–76 ✓
Oklahoma @ Nebraska +0.3 126.7 53% 69–56 ✗
Florida @ Xavier -0.5 153.7 45% 83–90 ✗
The Citadel @ Denver +3.1 142.4 65% 71–74 ✓
Butler @ BYU -11.5 141.8 19% 75–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.