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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–8 on winners spread MAE 7.4 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Elon +9.1 140.6 79% 59–73 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +11.3 150.0 86% 80–91 ✓
Jackson State @ California Baptist +12.5 143.5 86% 73–79 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +17.9 140.0 89% 60–70 ✓
Washington State @ Portland -11.9 150.2 15% 89–73 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +12.4 144.5 87% 77–87 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +12.2 137.0 86% 55–70 ✓
Indiana State @ Ohio State +22.7 157.3 90% 83–103 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas +21.8 139.9 90% 53–77 ✓
Stetson @ Florida +34.9 154.0 91% 45–85 ✓
Hofstra @ Quinnipiac +1.7 136.6 61% 69–75 ✓
Stonehill @ Lafayette +3.2 140.3 66% 70–65 ✗
Navy @ William & Mary +7.8 153.2 73% 76–82 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Penn State +28.1 144.7 91% 66–86 ✓
Harvard @ Iona +1.9 137.8 52% 67–61 ✗
Northeastern @ Northwestern +13.3 136.7 87% 60–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma +28.6 162.2 91% 67–89 ✓
Chicago State @ Illinois +36.0 151.4 91% 64–117 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +14.0 148.3 87% 67–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +8.4 144.1 80% 70–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Marist +7.0 133.8 74% 51–69 ✓
Boston University @ Maine +6.9 132.5 75% 59–56 ✗
Le Moyne @ Niagara +4.6 142.1 71% 69–88 ✓
Norfolk State @ High Point +6.8 142.9 75% 77–74 ✗
Morgan State @ Minnesota +17.7 143.8 89% 68–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Georgia +21.0 140.8 90% 72–79 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +8.5 141.6 80% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +11.8 149.8 87% 81–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +1.1 134.9 53% 93–97 ✓
Longwood @ SMU +19.2 151.1 89% 82–98 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +15.8 157.5 87% 82–105 ✓
Belmont @ Drake +9.5 140.5 79% 46–65 ✓
Buffalo @ Temple +13.9 147.5 88% 71–91 ✓
UTSA @ Army +1.5 159.8 58% 75–78 ✓
NJIT @ Washington +17.5 136.5 89% 53–90 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +1.2 142.5 63% 64–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -9.9 154.0 25% 83–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.1 138.8 27% 40–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Bradley +13.3 149.6 87% 75–81 ✓
UMBC @ American University +3.9 147.9 65% 96–93 ✗
Winthrop @ Indiana +14.5 156.8 87% 68–77 ✓
Weber State @ Oregon +19.4 142.8 90% 49–89 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ UC Riverside +0.3 147.7 51% 79–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas State +7.5 146.7 78% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Illinois State +6.1 147.0 73% 73–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +2.3 130.9 68% 60–70 ✓
Toledo @ Purdue +18.1 150.6 89% 64–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.