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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–8 on winners spread MAE 8.9 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Dayton +1.2 150.1 50% 63–71 ✓
Green Bay @ UC Santa Barbara +16.0 147.3 88% 66–83 ✓
San Diego @ Fresno State +5.8 144.4 74% 65–73 ✓
Drexel @ UAlbany +3.3 144.5 61% 77–70 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Mount St. Mary's +6.5 142.0 72% 77–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Davidson +10.9 151.2 82% 51–86 ✓
Radford @ Utah +14.8 143.8 85% 63–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Liberty +24.9 144.2 91% 74–83 ✓
VCU @ Colorado State -3.3 139.4 38% 76–68 ✓
Gonzaga @ UConn -0.5 148.4 42% 71–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +6.6 149.9 76% 65–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Eastern Kentucky +9.8 142.1 84% 66–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kansas City +1.8 140.9 55% 77–85 ✓
Creighton @ Alabama +13.2 159.1 87% 75–83 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Boise State +0.1 138.6 47% 65–67 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Loyola Marymount +11.9 152.3 87% 75–76 ✓
Wyoming @ BYU +14.9 141.9 85% 49–68 ✓
Cal Poly @ San José State +3.1 152.0 64% 100–107 ✓
Texas Southern @ Nevada +21.4 141.9 90% 73–105 ✓
UC Davis @ Sacramento State -1.6 132.8 33% 69–62 ✓
Pacific @ UNLV +9.6 137.9 78% 65–72 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Hawai'i +2.2 148.1 53% 62–71 ✓
South Alabama @ East Texas A&M -4.6 134.7 33% 81–72 ✓
Temple @ Hofstra +5.0 143.4 72% 60–42 ✗
Navy @ Virginia Tech +11.0 140.3 84% 72–80 ✓
Omaha @ Iowa State +27.5 147.7 91% 51–83 ✓
Northeastern @ Old Dominion -8.8 139.7 22% 75–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Northern Kentucky -0.7 135.4 48% 62–71 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Rhode Island +12.8 138.4 85% 69–77 ✓
Akron @ Milwaukee +0.3 151.2 48% 81–100 ✓
UIC @ Little Rock +5.2 141.2 74% 77–69 ✗
Campbell @ Morgan State -7.0 142.6 26% 76–86 ✗
Vermont @ Colgate +2.8 128.9 59% 60–65 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Chattanooga +14.1 148.6 89% 63–85 ✓
Chicago State @ Mercer +13.3 151.2 88% 63–75 ✓
Western Michigan @ North Dakota State +10.4 144.9 82% 62–98 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Eastern Michigan -4.7 148.7 40% 99–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ Miami +8.2 142.9 75% 75–94 ✓
New Orleans @ Iowa +22.6 157.3 90% 57–104 ✓
UTSA @ North Dakota +2.1 149.5 52% 95–85 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas +36.8 156.6 91% 57–121 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Northwestern +9.7 138.1 80% 60–71 ✓
Stonehill @ Boston College +5.8 138.8 72% 69–73 ✓
Denver @ Cal State Fullerton +4.1 138.4 64% 59–74 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Kent State +15.3 126.3 86% 57–82 ✓
Saint Louis @ Illinois State +5.5 151.2 73% 77–81 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Oregon +19.0 134.9 90% 61–79 ✓
Arkansas State @ UAB -0.5 155.1 42% 98–89 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Chicago -0.5 137.9 50% 76–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.