Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–10 on winners spread MAE 7.8 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Elon +9.7 142.1 81% 59–73 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +14.6 151.4 91% 80–91 ✓
Jackson State @ California Baptist +14.0 145.5 90% 73–79 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +20.2 136.4 97% 60–70 ✓
Washington State @ Portland -16.5 154.5 7% 89–73 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +14.2 146.4 90% 77–87 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +14.7 133.2 91% 55–70 ✓
Indiana State @ Ohio State +21.9 162.2 98% 83–103 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas +19.2 139.0 96% 53–77 ✓
Stetson @ Florida +41.0 157.2 100% 45–85 ✓
Hofstra @ Quinnipiac +0.8 137.1 53% 69–75 ✓
Stonehill @ Lafayette +4.9 137.9 67% 70–65 ✗
Navy @ William & Mary +12.4 170.6 87% 76–82 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Penn State +31.7 148.8 100% 66–86 ✓
Harvard @ Iona +3.6 138.7 63% 67–61 ✗
Northeastern @ Northwestern +14.0 134.3 90% 60–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma +26.1 167.6 99% 67–89 ✓
Chicago State @ Illinois +42.1 144.8 100% 64–117 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +14.0 148.9 90% 67–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +11.8 151.8 86% 70–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Marist +6.9 133.8 74% 51–69 ✓
Boston University @ Maine +7.3 133.6 75% 59–56 ✗
Le Moyne @ Niagara +4.7 145.9 67% 69–88 ✓
Norfolk State @ High Point +5.3 145.2 69% 77–74 ✗
Morgan State @ Minnesota +18.0 143.5 95% 68–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Georgia +21.9 137.1 98% 72–79 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +11.5 136.9 85% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +16.2 151.4 93% 81–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +3.3 129.5 62% 93–97 ✓
Longwood @ SMU +19.4 154.4 96% 82–98 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +19.0 165.6 96% 82–105 ✓
Belmont @ Drake +10.4 147.0 83% 46–65 ✓
Buffalo @ Temple +16.7 149.2 94% 71–91 ✓
UTSA @ Army +0.6 168.4 52% 75–78 ✓
NJIT @ Washington +20.1 131.9 97% 53–90 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State -0.4 142.3 49% 64–78 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -6.5 168.8 28% 83–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -8.3 141.5 22% 40–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Bradley +14.9 155.8 91% 75–81 ✓
UMBC @ American University +3.7 152.6 63% 96–93 ✗
Winthrop @ Indiana +17.2 162.1 94% 68–77 ✓
Weber State @ Oregon +22.4 147.3 98% 49–89 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ UC Riverside -2.0 150.6 43% 79–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +8.5 148.4 78% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Illinois State +8.0 157.1 77% 73–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +1.4 128.4 55% 60–70 ✓
Toledo @ Purdue +21.0 156.7 97% 64–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.