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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–14 on winners spread MAE 9.9 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State +12.1 143.5 86% 81–90 ✓
Old Dominion @ Florida International +6.3 126.6 72% 82–77 ✗
Michigan @ UCF +1.7 136.1 56% 71–85 ✓
Brown @ Maryland +7.5 134.4 75% 67–81 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +20.9 146.9 97% 61–79 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +9.7 138.7 81% 75–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +8.6 129.2 78% 74–79 ✓
UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina +7.3 146.0 75% 64–94 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle -2.3 139.1 42% 69–61 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +10.7 144.8 83% 83–56 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +12.3 137.1 87% 52–82 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +14.5 136.3 91% 62–75 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +8.5 136.5 78% 64–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Little Rock -8.8 138.0 21% 66–78 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +10.5 136.3 83% 63–66 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +25.3 150.2 99% 81–106 ✓
Chicago State @ Grand Canyon +21.3 123.2 97% 63–80 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley +5.2 141.1 68% 80–76 ✗
Troy @ Texas State +12.1 139.1 86% 78–63 ✗
South Alabama @ UT Arlington -6.5 130.5 28% 87–89 ✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts +10.5 147.7 83% 66–83 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -5.5 153.3 31% 90–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Austin Peay +6.7 143.9 73% 65–62 ✗
Utah @ Oregon State -5.8 140.5 30% 76–88 ✗
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech +12.4 163.5 87% 56–79 ✓
Sacramento State @ Southern Utah +15.3 140.9 92% 51–64 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +7.9 141.3 76% 85–75 ✗
Idaho State @ Montana +14.1 122.5 90% 54–78 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech -3.7 132.3 37% 83–69 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +3.4 137.0 62% 83–85 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -3.5 140.4 38% 63–58 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield -0.5 119.4 48% 73–67 ✓
High Point @ Kentucky +24.6 140.2 99% 48–92 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Bryant +6.0 152.0 71% 82–85 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +1.9 125.6 57% 77–82 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary -6.8 123.8 27% 70–71 ✗
Delaware @ Charleston +6.1 162.2 71% 67–66 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac -2.3 133.2 42% 68–77 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +11.6 148.2 85% 70–62 ✗
Central Connecticut @ St. Francis Brooklyn +7.9 136.6 76% 67–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.