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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LSU
@
Auburn
|
+0.5 | 135.4 | 52% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Providence
|
+0.0 | 139.4 | 50% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Kentucky
|
+23.9 | 140.6 | 99% | 56–83 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Syracuse
|
+10.1 | 174.9 | 82% | 68–80 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Morehead State
|
+23.7 | 124.5 | 98% | 50–63 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Georgia
|
+3.7 | 138.9 | 63% | 77–60 | ✗ |
Wagner
@
Saint Francis
|
-13.1 | 139.6 | 12% | 72–64 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
Sacred Heart
|
+3.0 | 150.4 | 61% | 65–69 | ✓ |
St. Francis Brooklyn
@
Merrimack
|
+4.0 | 116.5 | 64% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Central Connecticut
|
-3.1 | 146.2 | 39% | 80–76 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Wofford
|
+13.1 | 145.0 | 88% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Furman
|
+10.0 | 158.8 | 82% | 49–81 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
William & Mary
|
-16.8 | 146.2 | 6% | 62–63 | ✗ |
Delaware
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-3.2 | 139.4 | 39% | 68–70 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
Elon
|
-4.2 | 130.6 | 35% | 62–79 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+24.0 | 152.3 | 99% | 56–83 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Kansas
|
+22.2 | 166.4 | 98% | 61–88 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Wisconsin
|
+17.7 | 146.8 | 95% | 85–89 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Tulsa
|
-2.2 | 145.8 | 42% | 74–69 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Tulane
|
-7.1 | 148.4 | 26% | 84–85 | ✗ |
Western Illinois
@
Iowa
|
+17.4 | 166.1 | 94% | 71–92 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Louisville
|
+1.4 | 142.3 | 55% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Texas A&M
|
+27.9 | 146.8 | 99% | 59–85 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Alabama
|
+0.5 | 150.6 | 52% | 68–73 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Miami
|
+7.7 | 154.7 | 76% | 83–91 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Rutgers
|
+25.2 | 118.8 | 99% | 64–80 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
App State
|
+3.6 | 129.2 | 63% | 71–55 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.