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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern State
@
Baylor
|
+39.6 | 145.0 | 100% | 68–104 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Southern Illinois
|
+15.8 | 126.1 | 92% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Pittsburgh
|
-2.4 | 123.8 | 41% | 68–67 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Texas
|
+28.2 | 124.1 | 99% | 33–78 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Maryland
|
+20.6 | 138.6 | 97% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+3.1 | 114.3 | 61% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Saint Mary's
|
+12.2 | 129.8 | 87% | 60–87 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Michigan State
|
+25.1 | 135.2 | 99% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-11.0 | 134.1 | 16% | 47–49 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Buffalo
|
+9.5 | 158.1 | 81% | 91–81 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+16.4 | 139.8 | 93% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Purdue
|
+25.3 | 152.6 | 99% | 90–104 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
-5.1 | 133.2 | 32% | 59–63 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Mississippi State
|
+8.4 | 144.2 | 78% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.