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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-0.2 | 145.4 | 49% | 63–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.1 | 150.2 | 87% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 147.1 | 72% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 141.0 | 54% | 77–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 140.6 | 74% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.5 | 147.6 | 86% | 51–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 144.0 | 87% | 63–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.8 | 145.2 | 90% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 138.6 | 46% | 76–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 144.4 | 55% | 71–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 148.8 | 78% | 65–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 140.9 | 86% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.1 | 55% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 162.8 | 86% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 139.4 | 52% | 65–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 152.5 | 88% | 75–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 140.2 | 88% | 49–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 152.0 | 70% | 100–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.0 | 141.8 | 90% | 73–105 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 132.3 | 29% | 69–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 137.3 | 87% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 145.9 | 61% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 136.1 | 27% | 81–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 141.4 | 72% | 60–42 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.5 | 140.4 | 88% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.4 | 146.9 | 91% | 51–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.9 | 139.0 | 19% | 75–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 136.5 | 53% | 62–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 139.5 | 86% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 153.3 | 48% | 81–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 139.4 | 59% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.3 | 141.5 | 33% | 76–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 132.1 | 63% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 148.3 | 89% | 63–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 153.0 | 87% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 144.5 | 72% | 62–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 146.8 | 31% | 99–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 139.8 | 81% | 75–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.2 | 159.7 | 90% | 57–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 150.3 | 50% | 95–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+28.1 | 161.7 | 91% | 57–121 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 133.8 | 80% | 60–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 138.6 | 85% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 136.0 | 59% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 128.6 | 83% | 57–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 149.5 | 71% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.7 | 134.4 | 89% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 151.7 | 44% | 98–89 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 135.2 | 52% | 76–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.