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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–12 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+28.0 | 141.8 | 91% | 45–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 125.2 | 74% | 73–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 134.0 | 80% | 57–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 142.2 | 52% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 139.8 | 71% | 85–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 133.9 | 67% | 98–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 140.7 | 66% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 145.2 | 87% | 56–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 133.5 | 66% | 55–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 133.1 | 37% | 67–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 146.0 | 74% | 82–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 139.7 | 59% | 71–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 125.7 | 64% | 66–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 149.3 | 66% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.0 | 143.1 | 21% | 82–44 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 141.4 | 66% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 141.1 | 60% | 59–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 161.8 | 53% | 83–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 135.2 | 86% | 57–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 148.4 | 87% | 97–90 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 127.0 | 25% | 67–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 136.6 | 61% | 52–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 140.9 | 26% | 71–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.8 | 141.2 | 88% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.8 | 139.5 | 91% | 58–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 139.8 | 23% | 77–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 140.8 | 72% | 67–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 142.0 | 34% | 79–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 141.4 | 80% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 155.6 | 43% | 92–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 140.7 | 85% | 61–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 133.3 | 28% | 70–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.3 | 160.8 | 91% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.8 | 154.8 | 91% | 73–120 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 132.8 | 75% | 82–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.2 | 137.3 | 30% | 68–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 142.6 | 69% | 74–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 132.4 | 82% | 62–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 150.6 | 28% | 72–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 154.5 | 60% | 76–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 139.0 | 48% | 74–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 135.9 | 61% | 73–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.6 | 153.4 | 82% | 59–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 141.5 | 66% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 155.0 | 87% | 72–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.4 | 142.3 | 89% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 141.5 | 45% | 66–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 143.1 | 60% | 90–101 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.5 | 140.0 | 31% | 72–59 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.