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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–14 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+14.0 | 146.8 | 88% | 72–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 156.3 | 87% | 78–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.5 | 132.4 | 82% | 62–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 143.7 | 73% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 130.5 | 43% | 69–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 149.2 | 71% | 82–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 150.9 | 39% | 73–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 157.7 | 65% | 73–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 150.4 | 83% | 72–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 134.4 | 34% | 73–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.7 | 135.0 | 14% | 75–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 143.4 | 79% | 68–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 128.8 | 54% | 64–48 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 134.6 | 55% | 67–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.9 | 145.1 | 80% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 137.2 | 74% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 140.8 | 66% | 71–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.9 | 155.7 | 28% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.9 | 141.9 | 35% | 79–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 155.0 | 50% | 92–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 146.9 | 35% | 75–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 137.1 | 76% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.8 | 138.2 | 16% | 86–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 140.2 | 38% | 64–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.9 | 127.6 | 90% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 142.6 | 43% | 80–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 149.2 | 64% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.8 | 135.2 | 19% | 63–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.3 | 74% | 70–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 132.4 | 63% | 51–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.3 | 48% | 82–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 141.2 | 56% | 67–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 137.0 | 88% | 53–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 146.6 | 59% | 53–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 130.7 | 84% | 43–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 138.7 | 86% | 67–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 128.3 | 78% | 54–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 137.5 | 87% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 150.9 | 44% | 91–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 125.3 | 60% | 78–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 145.5 | 81% | 79–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 139.2 | 71% | 77–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 154.4 | 63% | 66–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.