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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.0 | 138.1 | 52% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 132.8 | 50% | 88–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 146.0 | 56% | 94–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.6 | 144.4 | 87% | 81–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 138.7 | 44% | 53–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 141.7 | 69% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 133.4 | 79% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 143.4 | 74% | 72–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 141.2 | 65% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 138.7 | 52% | 59–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 145.5 | 87% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.1 | 156.8 | 91% | 78–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 147.6 | 73% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 139.1 | 20% | 93–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 137.3 | 65% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 127.2 | 56% | 69–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 151.0 | 56% | 61–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 140.2 | 22% | 84–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 127.7 | 67% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 140.2 | 82% | 64–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 141.1 | 72% | 77–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 135.4 | 77% | 72–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 155.4 | 36% | 81–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 153.0 | 59% | 82–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.1 | 146.1 | 14% | 87–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 160.6 | 90% | 62–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 148.1 | 59% | 78–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 136.8 | 60% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.3 | 148.3 | 19% | 92–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 140.7 | 67% | 90–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.1 | 138.0 | 89% | 51–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 139.0 | 66% | 60–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 148.7 | 81% | 74–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 129.2 | 78% | 51–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 141.0 | 37% | 64–52 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 132.0 | 22% | 77–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 141.5 | 80% | 65–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 142.9 | 48% | 83–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 132.9 | 71% | 66–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 145.9 | 78% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 150.6 | 48% | 83–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 157.9 | 44% | 92–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 131.7 | 82% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.