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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–8 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.4 | 131.9 | 74% | 46–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 141.9 | 33% | 60–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 150.2 | 57% | 71–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 140.5 | 51% | 66–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.3 | 143.6 | 28% | 66–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 142.7 | 21% | 73–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 150.4 | 70% | 91–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 137.8 | 60% | 86–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 148.7 | 74% | 76–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 129.0 | 55% | 69–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 156.0 | 51% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.8 | 129.0 | 90% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 136.6 | 76% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 136.2 | 19% | 68–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 126.1 | 56% | 47–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 124.2 | 57% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 130.1 | 63% | 52–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 140.2 | 52% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 130.3 | 73% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 147.5 | 52% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 134.9 | 72% | 72–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 148.6 | 75% | 69–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 131.1 | 22% | 57–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.0 | 58% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 146.5 | 63% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 134.6 | 62% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 135.9 | 84% | 64–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 134.2 | 71% | 54–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 137.9 | 83% | 53–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 145.7 | 73% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 136.9 | 48% | 82–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 141.9 | 72% | 78–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 134.8 | 83% | 75–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 126.7 | 60% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 139.5 | 65% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 138.3 | 83% | 73–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 136.3 | 32% | 64–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 130.0 | 61% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 135.2 | 72% | 47–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 150.1 | 59% | 73–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 152.6 | 71% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.