Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +333 MICH -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -10.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.1 (+12.1) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -6.1 (+12.1) | 136.3 (-2.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.9 (+12.9) | 136.9 (-2.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -6.9 (+12.9) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MICH 90 – 80 MSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MICH 83 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | MSU 79 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSU 75 – 62 MICH |
| Feb 18, 2024 | MSU 73 – 63 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#80) | 20.0 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#47) | 3.94 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#36) | 4.88 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#109) | 0.643 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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