Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -600 MEM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -11.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.5 (-8.5) | 135.2 (-4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -10.3 (-7.3) | 135.9 (-4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.4 (-8.4) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -10.9 (-7.9) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2023 | MEM 75 – 65 HOU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | HOU 67 – 65 MEM |
| Feb 19, 2023 | HOU 72 – 64 MEM |
| Mar 13, 2022 | HOU 71 – 53 MEM |
| Mar 6, 2022 | MEM 75 – 61 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#6) | 10.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#8) | 1.76 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#9) | 2.43 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#7) | 0.564 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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