Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +188 UNCW -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.2 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.0 (+17.0) | 146.3 (-13.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -4.0 (+17.0) | 141.9 (-8.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.9 (+16.9) | 144.6 (-11.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.6 (+16.6) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 1-6 |
| Home | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#282) | -2.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#229) | -0.98 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#262) | -0.95 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#212) | 0.437 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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