Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -110 XAV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.0 (+6.0) | 141.5 (-16.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.2 (+6.8) | 140.2 (-15.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.8 (+6.2) | 141.8 (-16.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.9 (+6.1) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#84) | 9.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#72) | 1.93 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#69) | 2.31 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#142) | 0.564 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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