Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | UCSD -142 CSUF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -0.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.2 (+5.8) | 154.4 (+8.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -0.4 (+6.6) | 156.0 (+7.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.3 (+7.3) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -0.8 (+6.2) | 153.4 (+9.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 6-10 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 5-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 0-7 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#267) | -4.5 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#251) | -0.65 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#258) | -0.66 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#266) | 0.445 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 27.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 17.0% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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