Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | RGV -162 TAR +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -1.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -0.4 (-11.4) | 129.8 (-2.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.8 (-12.8) | 129.0 (-2.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.2 (-10.8) | 129.5 (-2.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -0.9 (-11.9) | 129.2 (-2.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2024 | TAR 77 – 73 RGV |
| Dec 2, 2023 | TAR 77 – 75 RGV |
| Mar 8, 2023 | TAR 74 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 26, 2023 | RGV 99 – 95 TAR |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RGV 68 – 65 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 2-5 | 5-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#269) | -5.5 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#298) | -1.62 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#293) | -1.76 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#288) | 0.463 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 27.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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