Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -150 ETSU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -1.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.6 (+9.4) | 131.1 (+10.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.6 (+10.4) | 130.0 (+12.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.5 (+9.5) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.8 (+9.2) | 131.6 (+10.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#94) | 3.8 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#94) | 0.27 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#92) | 0.68 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#62) | 0.527 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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