Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -4000 CP +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -24.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -19.0 (-3.0) | 131.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -15.8 (+0.2) | 129.0 (-5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -19.6 (-3.6) | 131.1 (-7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -19.9 (-3.9) | 129.7 (-5.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-5 | 4-20 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 1-15 |
| Home | 11-0 | 3-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 59.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#73) | -14.1 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#58) | -2.46 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#75) | -3.05 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#30) | 0.365 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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