Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Under |
| Money | SMC -220 LMU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +5 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -2.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -2.3 (+2.7) | 128.8 (-29.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -1.0 (+4.0) | 126.1 (-27.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.0 (+3.0) | 129.0 (-30.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -2.4 (+2.6) | 128.9 (-29.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#63) | 1.38 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#67) | 1.43 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#47) | 0.554 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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