Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -275 SELA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -8.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -7.9 (-2.9) | 150.8 (+6.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -5.5 (-0.5) | 148.7 (+8.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -7.0 (-2.0) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -7.0 (-2.0) | 153.7 (+3.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SELA 82 – 78 NOLA |
| Jan 13, 2026 | NOLA 79 – 76 SELA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SELA 76 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SELA 91 – 71 NOLA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NOLA 78 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 8-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#275) | -13.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#326) | -2.31 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#323) | -3.29 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#310) | 0.438 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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