Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +400 USU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +6 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -8.0 (+2.0) | 134.0 (-26.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -9.3 (+3.3) | 131.1 (-23.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -9.2 (+3.2) | 133.6 (-25.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -8.9 (+2.9) | 134.4 (-26.4) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#219) | 11.1 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#145) | 1.56 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#158) | 1.80 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#157) | 0.574 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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