Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -150 HAW +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -1.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -0.2 (+7.8) | 145.4 (-5.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.5 (+8.5) | 140.5 (-0.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -0.3 (+7.7) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.1 (+7.9) | 144.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | HAW 77 – 73 UCD |
| Dec 5, 2025 | HAW 75 – 69 UCD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | HAW 78 – 70 UCD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UCD 68 – 66 HAW |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UCD 68 – 65 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 11-10 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#259) | -2.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#211) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#224) | -0.32 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#204) | 0.483 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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