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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 10.3 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cincinnati @ Kansas State -4.5 138.7 34% 67–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +9.9 131.2 82% 51–79 ✓
New Hampshire @ Iowa +23.6 153.7 91% 70–112 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina +16.1 142.2 89% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Missouri +20.0 160.0 91% 65–82 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -9.6 134.8 19% 60–47 ✓
Oakland @ Arkansas +18.8 142.3 90% 62–92 ✓
TCU @ Arizona +12.6 142.5 86% 81–90 ✓
Bryant @ Grand Canyon +7.5 152.4 78% 66–112 ✓
New Orleans @ Vanderbilt +24.1 157.0 91% 56–100 ✓
Iowa State @ Colorado -4.5 146.2 31% 79–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi State +22.4 145.1 91% 73–87 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +18.7 138.0 90% 43–77 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +11.5 145.3 87% 59–73 ✓
Portland @ Oregon State +19.3 142.6 91% 79–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -10.4 154.6 17% 89–82 ✓
Nicholls @ Seattle U +9.8 146.8 82% 71–69 ✗
UC Irvine @ California Baptist -3.8 142.0 30% 71–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +6.1 140.4 73% 94–97 ✓
Pacific @ San Diego +0.9 136.7 49% 65–75 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +1.9 126.2 60% 67–70 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +6.3 137.7 70% 62–61 ✗
Brown @ Kentucky +19.0 155.3 90% 54–88 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +10.2 156.4 83% 56–81 ✓
UCF @ Texas Tech +11.8 151.6 85% 87–83 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +2.6 145.4 62% 83–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Syracuse +2.3 138.3 60% 81–71 ✗
VCU @ St. Bonaventure +3.7 130.1 70% 75–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +13.5 147.9 88% 72–81 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham +3.0 151.0 70% 88–63 ✗
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -4.3 139.0 33% 55–67 ✗
La Salle @ Dayton +13.9 144.7 88% 70–84 ✓
Davidson @ George Mason +5.6 136.8 70% 57–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier +13.3 137.8 88% 72–94 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech +0.8 142.7 55% 75–86 ✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee +21.6 136.9 91% 52–67 ✓
East Carolina @ South Florida +1.8 144.4 59% 69–75 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +5.8 147.7 71% 56–76 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +10.4 142.3 83% 75–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +2.5 129.2 55% 62–57 ✗
George Washington @ Richmond -5.3 145.1 30% 61–66 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -6.1 132.4 30% 77–58 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton -1.1 149.5 49% 56–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +21.1 134.7 91% 65–88 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State +2.0 142.6 59% 72–50 ✗
Marquette @ Providence -6.3 137.8 30% 78–50 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.