Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -25.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -21.8 (-7.8) | 146.2 (+13.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -23.5 (-9.5) | 146.7 (+13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -22.4 (-8.4) | 145.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -22.5 (-8.5) | 142.8 (+17.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | MSST 85 – 62 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#20) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#8) | -0.81 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.00 (#10) | -1.15 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#23) | 0.483 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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