Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UK -50000 BRWN +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +34 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UK -22.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -20.2 (+13.8) | 153.7 (-11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -20.4 (+13.6) | 157.9 (-15.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -19.0 (+15.0) | 155.3 (-13.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -21.7 (+12.3) | 153.8 (-11.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#16) | -1.0 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#23) | 0.27 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#31) | 0.29 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#32) | 0.489 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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