Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BYU -550 ASU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -7.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -5.8 (+14.2) | 147.7 (-15.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -7.6 (+12.4) | 147.2 (-15.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -4.7 (+15.3) | 149.0 (-17.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -4.6 (+15.4) | 146.8 (-14.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | BYU 104 – 76 ASU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BYU 91 – 81 ASU |
| Nov 24, 2023 | BYU 77 – 49 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#36) | 10.3 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#69) | 2.97 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#76) | 3.95 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#90) | 0.640 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 82.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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