Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -3000 OAK +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +30 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -21.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -20.6 (+9.4) | 141.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -14.7 (+15.3) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -18.8 (+11.2) | 142.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -19.8 (+10.2) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#29) | -2.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#56) | -0.34 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#56) | -0.46 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#76) | 0.509 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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