Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1000 BRY +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +46 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -6.4 (+39.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -8.4 (+37.6) | 156.1 (+21.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -7.9 (+38.1) | 155.3 (+22.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -7.5 (+38.5) | 152.4 (+25.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -8.1 (+37.9) | 152.6 (+25.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#138) | -0.9 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#93) | -0.70 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#105) | -0.71 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#91) | 0.476 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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