Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +44 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -28.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -31.4 (+12.6) | 157.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -23.8 (+20.2) | 156.8 (-0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -24.1 (+19.9) | 157.0 (-1.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -30.5 (+13.5) | 156.0 (+0.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 0-11 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 82.5 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#41) | -11.3 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#28) | -1.21 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#35) | -1.70 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#66) | 0.464 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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