What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–14 on winners spread MAE 8.8 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ UConn +4.4 142.5 72% 48–62 ✓
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +5.7 152.2 73% 77–90 ✓
Ole Miss @ LSU +1.6 147.8 58% 80–89 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +2.2 124.4 59% 57–65 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +6.8 153.1 76% 84–75 ✗
North Texas @ East Carolina -6.0 130.1 25% 60–59 ✓
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -6.0 136.2 25% 71–73 ✗
High Point @ Presbyterian -8.0 151.2 23% 86–83 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +5.8 144.9 73% 74–68 ✗
Nebraska @ Rutgers -0.1 135.4 52% 82–87 ✗
Lafayette @ Holy Cross -3.6 129.0 35% 72–68 ✓
Lehigh @ Navy +2.3 140.4 62% 69–71 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham +0.9 141.2 54% 79–69 ✗
Massachusetts @ Loyola Chicago +1.1 141.8 59% 78–79 ✓
Rhode Island @ St. Bonaventure +7.7 144.7 78% 64–99 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +3.2 129.5 65% 73–57 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.6 147.8 66% 73–75 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +5.4 133.2 73% 67–73 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +0.5 141.6 55% 74–60 ✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland +4.2 148.8 72% 67–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +18.3 150.3 90% 85–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +11.3 140.1 87% 99–102 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma +14.8 144.2 88% 63–77 ✓
UCF @ Texas +4.6 136.6 71% 77–71 ✗
Tulane @ UAB -1.7 160.4 46% 69–83 ✗
UTSA @ Tulsa +7.0 153.0 76% 78–107 ✓
Murray State @ UIC +1.1 135.7 58% 73–58 ✗
Bradley @ Southern Illinois +1.4 135.3 52% 70–69 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State -8.2 136.9 20% 77–56 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +6.1 139.1 75% 75–78 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State -0.4 135.0 49% 86–68 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +0.7 149.2 55% 66–69 ✓
Louisville @ North Carolina +20.0 155.1 91% 70–86 ✓
Texas Tech @ Houston +12.6 130.3 84% 54–77 ✓
Auburn @ Vanderbilt -14.2 143.6 14% 80–65 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State +4.8 133.4 71% 68–66 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +1.5 146.9 58% 83–72 ✗
Maryland @ Northwestern +3.9 133.4 68% 69–72 ✓
Providence @ DePaul -11.6 139.2 15% 100–62 ✓
USC @ Arizona +16.3 159.7 90% 67–82 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +5.9 138.3 73% 59–71 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -5.2 139.6 26% 82–62 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan State +10.7 140.8 86% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.