Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–14 on winners spread MAE 10.4 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio State @ Indiana +1.8 141.4 54% 51–67 ✓
Binghamton @ UAlbany +0.4 129.9 57% 88–79 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +1.2 144.8 60% 94–78 ✗
Bryant @ Wagner +16.0 142.5 89% 81–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.4 140.7 50% 53–70 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University +3.6 142.1 65% 57–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +5.6 130.9 74% 68–82 ✓
UIC @ Wright State +2.3 143.5 62% 72–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Georgia State +0.9 141.8 59% 70–63 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +2.0 137.6 61% 59–69 ✓
Maryland @ Illinois +13.7 145.8 88% 64–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ UCLA +22.3 153.4 91% 78–96 ✓
Little Rock @ UL Monroe +6.5 153.4 77% 72–80 ✓
Seattle U @ Chicago State -7.8 136.6 23% 93–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA +1.5 136.9 55% 74–73 ✗
UAB @ North Texas +2.2 128.0 55% 69–63 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Rice +2.0 153.3 54% 61–65 ✓
Grand Canyon @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.4 141.1 26% 84–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Tarleton State +6.0 131.8 75% 64–75 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +11.9 141.0 85% 64–58 ✗
Arkansas State @ Louisiana +3.4 140.1 65% 77–83 ✓
App State @ South Alabama +8.3 138.3 81% 72–64 ✗
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas +0.1 158.0 50% 81–66 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +1.4 152.4 56% 82–98 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word -12.4 149.3 15% 87–56 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Belmont +17.4 160.2 91% 62–102 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +2.7 151.9 64% 78–87 ✓
Washington State @ Colorado -1.8 136.4 48% 78–83 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho -9.0 146.2 22% 92–72 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington +3.9 141.3 68% 90–78 ✗
Pacific @ BYU +17.5 140.5 90% 51–73 ✓
SMU @ Cincinnati +2.8 138.5 61% 60–77 ✓
Washington @ Utah +10.4 147.1 84% 74–68 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside +5.1 131.5 76% 51–59 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP -1.3 142.5 43% 64–52 ✓
USC @ California -3.4 131.6 29% 77–63 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +6.6 142.3 77% 65–81 ✓
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +0.4 143.6 52% 83–80 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +5.7 138.2 73% 66–58 ✗
Lehigh @ Army +5.4 148.2 72% 55–77 ✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +1.6 148.3 57% 83–78 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -2.8 154.8 40% 92–64 ✓
Kent State @ Ohio +9.8 131.9 84% 72–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.