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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 10.3 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cincinnati @ Kansas State -4.9 138.4 39% 67–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +9.6 132.5 82% 51–79 ✓
New Hampshire @ Iowa +28.8 155.4 91% 70–112 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina +15.2 142.6 88% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Missouri +21.5 159.5 91% 65–82 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -9.7 134.3 16% 60–47 ✓
Oakland @ Arkansas +19.8 142.4 90% 62–92 ✓
TCU @ Arizona +11.4 141.7 86% 81–90 ✓
Bryant @ Grand Canyon +8.1 152.6 79% 66–112 ✓
New Orleans @ Vanderbilt +30.5 156.0 91% 56–100 ✓
Iowa State @ Colorado -5.9 145.9 32% 79–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi State +22.5 142.8 91% 73–87 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +19.4 139.3 89% 43–77 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +11.4 146.4 86% 59–73 ✓
Portland @ Oregon State +21.5 141.3 91% 79–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -12.9 156.5 16% 89–82 ✓
Nicholls @ Seattle U +10.6 147.2 80% 71–69 ✗
UC Irvine @ California Baptist -3.1 141.9 36% 71–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +5.6 142.1 73% 94–97 ✓
Pacific @ San Diego +0.4 136.8 51% 65–75 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +1.4 125.4 62% 67–70 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +6.6 136.8 65% 62–61 ✗
Brown @ Kentucky +21.7 153.8 90% 54–88 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +9.8 155.6 83% 56–81 ✓
UCF @ Texas Tech +12.5 149.5 81% 87–83 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +2.0 147.0 58% 83–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Syracuse +1.9 139.4 57% 81–71 ✗
VCU @ St. Bonaventure +3.0 128.7 66% 75–77 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's +13.2 148.2 87% 72–81 ✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham +2.7 152.8 70% 88–63 ✗
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -5.2 139.7 37% 55–67 ✗
La Salle @ Dayton +12.8 144.8 87% 70–84 ✓
Davidson @ George Mason +5.2 137.3 70% 57–69 ✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier +12.0 138.8 86% 72–94 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech +0.1 142.1 51% 75–86 ✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee +25.4 139.3 91% 52–67 ✓
East Carolina @ South Florida +0.8 144.1 57% 69–75 ✓
Arizona State @ BYU +4.6 146.8 72% 56–76 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +11.2 142.4 83% 75–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +2.6 127.2 52% 62–57 ✗
George Washington @ Richmond -4.8 147.4 32% 61–66 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -5.3 133.6 33% 77–58 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton -1.0 151.1 45% 56–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +22.9 133.6 90% 65–88 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State +1.7 143.5 56% 72–50 ✗
Marquette @ Providence -5.5 138.0 33% 78–50 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.