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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–14 on winners spread MAE 8.9 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Illinois -0.3 164.1 48% 77–71 ✓
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +15.1 137.2 89% 51–84 ✓
Alabama @ Florida -0.9 180.2 60% 87–105 ✗
Tulane @ South Florida +8.5 153.5 82% 72–85 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +5.5 131.6 73% 48–64 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +16.2 146.2 90% 66–85 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +11.8 151.5 88% 63–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ Eastern Kentucky +5.4 145.2 73% 67–65 ✗
Queens University @ Stetson +4.5 156.0 73% 71–83 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville -8.1 149.4 22% 80–64 ✓
Syracuse @ Clemson +9.4 147.7 81% 75–90 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -6.4 147.4 27% 71–58 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia +1.3 149.9 59% 66–69 ✓
Duquesne @ VCU +4.8 136.1 67% 69–59 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo -8.8 146.6 17% 78–66 ✓
Kent State @ Ball State -2.4 141.7 40% 69–76 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +15.5 133.9 88% 61–60 ✗
Toledo @ Miami (OH) +0.0 146.1 47% 97–63 ✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan +0.3 141.1 50% 73–65 ✗
Harvard @ Dartmouth -6.1 134.5 27% 69–76 ✗
Vermont @ New Hampshire -6.3 138.5 20% 68–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +2.8 154.9 63% 72–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Bryant +5.1 160.8 77% 79–83 ✓
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee -5.2 135.3 30% 61–69 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +12.5 152.5 87% 79–83 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay +3.7 148.5 72% 98–101 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +7.7 157.8 79% 77–75 ✗
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -2.1 148.5 34% 75–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma +4.2 140.8 73% 71–74 ✓
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois -0.0 139.8 53% 69–63 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +3.6 137.6 67% 83–92 ✓
Air Force @ Wyoming +5.7 138.5 75% 63–74 ✓
Auburn @ Missouri -14.1 151.2 15% 101–74 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +9.6 145.0 83% 68–90 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis -10.0 150.9 16% 100–83 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +12.3 146.3 86% 70–69 ✗
Florida State @ Pittsburgh +7.7 147.1 78% 73–88 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -14.5 151.1 13% 104–77 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -0.6 132.8 53% 58–62 ✗
Nevada @ Boise State +3.3 143.2 65% 76–66 ✗
Villanova @ Seton Hall +1.0 134.2 58% 56–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.