They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–11 on winners spread MAE 9.6 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Miami -2.1 146.8 43% 84–55 ✓
Florida @ Alabama +11.0 171.8 85% 93–98 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason -1.8 134.6 47% 67–71 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +0.7 136.8 52% 72–50 ✗
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -6.9 143.0 29% 81–57 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati +10.4 140.3 83% 80–76 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +0.2 149.3 49% 75–80 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +4.5 139.7 70% 63–60 ✗
St. John's @ Georgetown -9.1 148.2 18% 90–85 ✓
Boston University @ American University +3.7 131.2 56% 67–52 ✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island -4.1 143.5 34% 85–77 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's +10.6 156.0 83% 75–79 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +0.4 131.9 46% 69–62 ✗
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -3.7 135.5 37% 59–73 ✗
The Citadel @ Mercer +2.6 135.8 65% 78–87 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +13.3 142.7 88% 69–82 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +5.5 147.8 75% 65–81 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall -8.1 152.8 20% 84–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +9.4 149.3 85% 71–72 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State +6.2 129.8 73% 68–76 ✓
Furman @ Samford +11.1 157.4 84% 72–74 ✓
South Florida @ UTSA -8.4 152.2 19% 66–61 ✓
Rice @ UAB +9.8 148.8 85% 94–71 ✗
Charlotte @ Memphis +3.9 144.2 60% 52–76 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -15.6 152.3 13% 83–64 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +1.8 140.8 59% 79–88 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +5.2 140.8 73% 68–72 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State -2.4 146.0 41% 86–62 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State -1.2 133.3 43% 73–81 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +11.3 158.0 86% 69–84 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +3.6 146.6 67% 79–75 ✗
Nebraska @ Indiana -2.0 146.4 42% 85–70 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt -5.6 143.6 33% 76–64 ✓
DePaul @ Marquette +25.7 148.7 91% 71–105 ✓
Kentucky @ LSU -2.0 166.4 43% 74–75 ✗
Tulsa @ Wichita State +4.2 144.4 72% 63–79 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +6.0 144.0 76% 71–83 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +4.7 149.1 72% 66–68 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -7.3 149.4 25% 89–70 ✓
UNLV @ Air Force -7.6 137.9 24% 72–43 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +5.4 144.7 73% 56–62 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +11.2 144.3 88% 64–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +9.4 143.7 84% 80–87 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine +4.2 142.4 68% 65–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.