They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Big Ten Conference · Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall · February 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread IU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money IU -138 / NEB +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total IU win
Actual NEB +15 155 Lost
Massey NEB -2.4 (-12.6) — —
Massey Totals — 147.8 (+7.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 52% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 48% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NEB -2.5 (-12.5) 147.8 (+7.2) 39% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NEB -1.8 (-13.2) 148.7 (+6.3) 43% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NEB -2.2 (-12.8) 145.8 (+9.2) 43% ✓
Baseline ML NEB -2.0 (-13.0) 146.4 (+8.6) 42% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 NEB 83 – 77 IU
Dec 14, 2024 NEB 85 – 68 IU
Mar 16, 2024 NEB 93 – 66 IU
Jan 4, 2024 NEB 86 – 70 IU
Dec 8, 2022 IU 81 – 65 NEB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IU NEB
Overall 19-14 23-11
Conference 10-10 12-8
Home 12-5 18-1
Away 4-6 3-8
Neutral 3-3 2-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.3 77.7
Avg Pts Against 74.3 70.9
Massey 4.8 (#105) 10.6 (#48)
Bradley-Terry 1.36 (#76) 1.91 (#46)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.67 (#75) 2.44 (#38)
RPI 0.553 (#87) 0.573 (#58)
Shooting & Four Factors IU NEB
FG% 47.5% 45.0%
3PT% 32.8% 36.0%
REB / G 35.2 38.0
OREB / G 9.0 9.9
AST / TO 1.24 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 52.9%
TOV% 17.2% 16.5%
ORB% 27.3% 28.8%
FT Rate 26.8% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 16.7%
DRB% 69.8% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 17.8%

Game Analysis

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