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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt
@
Ole Miss
|
+7.1 | 134.9 | 74% | 46–56 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
William & Mary
|
-6.6 | 150.8 | 28% | 60–73 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+0.3 | 156.3 | 51% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Davis
|
-1.4 | 145.4 | 45% | 66–74 | ✗ |
UC Riverside
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-10.9 | 146.2 | 16% | 66–65 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Long Beach State
|
-10.4 | 145.0 | 17% | 73–58 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Furman
|
+6.4 | 154.3 | 72% | 91–90 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
Belmont
|
+5.6 | 138.1 | 70% | 86–71 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
LSU New Orleans
|
+8.5 | 151.6 | 78% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+1.4 | 127.9 | 55% | 69–58 | ✗ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC San Diego
|
+0.1 | 157.8 | 50% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+23.6 | 126.4 | 98% | 54–70 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+8.9 | 136.0 | 79% | 68–86 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Utah Tech
|
-8.8 | 140.7 | 21% | 68–56 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Saint Mary's
|
+2.1 | 122.7 | 57% | 47–52 | ✓ |
App State
@
Texas State
|
+3.8 | 122.5 | 64% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
VCU
|
+3.0 | 135.0 | 61% | 52–64 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Marquette
|
-0.8 | 143.3 | 47% | 59–66 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
Grand Canyon
|
+7.5 | 137.0 | 75% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
California Baptist
|
+3.6 | 152.6 | 63% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Grambling
|
+6.0 | 125.9 | 71% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
South Dakota
|
+9.3 | 154.2 | 80% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Fresno State
|
-11.5 | 131.5 | 15% | 57–51 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Wyoming
|
+0.6 | 150.3 | 52% | 69–80 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Pepperdine
|
+3.4 | 149.3 | 62% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Hofstra
|
+2.9 | 136.4 | 61% | 75–83 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+13.3 | 132.6 | 89% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+4.1 | 134.0 | 64% | 54–65 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Winthrop
|
+11.1 | 147.0 | 84% | 53–80 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Iowa
|
+7.2 | 147.8 | 74% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
East Carolina
|
+0.7 | 137.6 | 53% | 82–69 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Northwestern
|
+6.2 | 139.8 | 71% | 78–79 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Liberty
|
+14.7 | 136.5 | 91% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+5.0 | 131.8 | 68% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Elon
@
James Madison
|
+7.4 | 140.5 | 75% | 72–71 | ✗ |
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
+8.8 | 142.3 | 79% | 73–88 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Michigan State
|
-10.6 | 138.1 | 17% | 64–70 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+1.5 | 130.6 | 56% | 65–77 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Northeastern
|
+9.3 | 135.2 | 80% | 47–63 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Georgia State
|
+2.8 | 157.6 | 60% | 73–84 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Oral Roberts
|
+8.9 | 155.3 | 79% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.