I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–12 on winners spread MAE 7.7 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Marshall +2.2 150.0 61% 90–77 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian +12.8 141.6 87% 65–63 ✗
San Diego @ San Francisco +12.8 130.2 87% 73–88 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth +0.7 138.3 54% 46–58 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine +2.0 147.4 58% 61–66 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +0.7 131.9 53% 63–60 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +15.2 155.8 88% 65–84 ✓
Miami @ Duke +15.9 159.1 88% 76–74 ✗
UCLA @ California -4.8 139.7 30% 60–52 ✓
Florida @ Auburn +12.0 141.8 84% 73–85 ✓
Iona @ Saint Louis +3.4 149.2 62% 67–68 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside +0.9 123.4 55% 68–51 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Davis +2.4 135.9 66% 71–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.2 150.4 24% 85–73 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +1.3 130.5 57% 71–77 ✓
Louisville @ Florida State +3.1 140.7 65% 70–79 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -4.5 155.0 32% 90–87 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +8.7 151.8 81% 77–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern +13.3 136.0 88% 71–90 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss -2.2 131.7 39% 72–82 ✗
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +21.9 157.6 91% 83–117 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTEP +9.7 130.7 83% 54–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ North Alabama -2.9 132.0 37% 65–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU +5.8 131.9 72% 43–52 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +7.1 135.8 75% 60–73 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris -0.4 144.7 45% 76–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Niagara +3.4 135.1 64% 66–76 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +0.8 144.2 52% 86–80 ✗
Rider @ Marist +10.9 136.4 87% 79–75 ✗
Fairfield @ Siena -4.9 134.0 33% 62–69 ✗
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -3.1 156.8 37% 88–93 ✗
Cincinnati @ Memphis +5.9 139.5 74% 80–87 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland +15.7 139.4 90% 65–86 ✓
Hofstra @ James Madison +0.3 144.6 57% 87–80 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +9.9 153.0 86% 61–65 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +12.0 136.9 87% 67–70 ✓
Washington @ Colorado +6.5 140.4 77% 64–78 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +7.1 144.6 79% 87–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.