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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–24 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
60 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+27.1 | 156.1 | 90% | 76–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.8 | 141.8 | 90% | 48–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 132.1 | 67% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 148.1 | 57% | 78–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 142.2 | 73% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 133.3 | 49% | 63–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+29.7 | 146.5 | 91% | 58–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 128.1 | 53% | 68–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 137.5 | 58% | 63–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 157.7 | 82% | 64–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 141.2 | 86% | 53–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 155.4 | 90% | 65–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 136.2 | 30% | 68–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+30.0 | 141.9 | 91% | 68–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 144.5 | 77% | 87–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 143.4 | 52% | 64–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+36.3 | 131.5 | 91% | 48–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 125.3 | 32% | 51–39 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 148.7 | 81% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 144.4 | 87% | 73–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 136.6 | 69% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 126.7 | 72% | 63–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+32.1 | 149.2 | 91% | 53–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 144.0 | 61% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 145.6 | 65% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 130.3 | 38% | 64–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 153.1 | 84% | 68–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+29.5 | 146.8 | 91% | 62–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 141.3 | 52% | 60–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 143.6 | 59% | 79–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.9 | 145.0 | 28% | 77–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 133.8 | 54% | 75–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.1 | 146.4 | 88% | 63–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 145.7 | 46% | 68–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 141.3 | 82% | 51–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 145.3 | 69% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 149.4 | 49% | 65–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.2 | 148.3 | 83% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 140.9 | 65% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 147.9 | 42% | 76–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 133.4 | 63% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 153.1 | 51% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 151.4 | 32% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 132.9 | 77% | 57–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 141.2 | 71% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 137.4 | 76% | 68–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 153.5 | 69% | 75–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 141.3 | 51% | 68–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 141.6 | 69% | 47–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.4 | 138.3 | 23% | 64–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.0 | 166.4 | 87% | 74–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 130.0 | 21% | 59–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.1 | 147.4 | 42% | 68–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.0 | 151.0 | 90% | 80–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.6 | 144.6 | 91% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 140.0 | 80% | 51–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 133.4 | 60% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 140.8 | 85% | 47–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 144.3 | 74% | 80–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 142.6 | 58% | 71–58 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.